A new analysis from H&P Law examined those differences across all 50 states, combining five measures into a Back-to-School Risk Index. The study found South Dakota had the highest overall comparative risk score in the country at 85.29, followed by Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming and Nebraska. New Jersey ranked at the opposite end of the index, followed by Massachusetts, Connecticut, Tennessee and North Dakota among the states with the lowest comparative risk.
The rankings do not suggest that every student in a higher-ranking state faces the same level of danger. Instead, they show how states compare across a combination of transportation deaths, school incidents, vaccination gaps and statewide sports-safety policies.
South Dakota Leads the Overall Back-to-School Risk Ranking
South Dakota’s No. 1 position was not driven by one isolated measure. The state showed elevated risk across several of the indicators included in H&P Law’s analysis.
South Dakota recorded 2.12 deaths per 100,000 public-school students during defined school commute hours, more than three times the national rate of 0.65. The state also recorded 2.12 pedestrian and cyclist deaths per 100,000 students and 41.8 serious school offenses per 1,000 students. Its statewide high school sports policies met just 43.6% of the evidence-based safety framework evaluated for the study.
The highest- and lowest-risk groups identified in the analysis were:
| Highest comparative risk | Lowest comparative risk |
|---|---|
| 1. South Dakota | New Jersey |
| 2. Missouri | Massachusetts |
| 3. Kentucky | Connecticut |
| 4. Wyoming | Tennessee |
| 5. Nebraska | North Dakota |
The individual measures tell an even more complicated story. South Dakota ranked highest overall, but other states recorded the most concerning results for specific indicators.
| Safety measure | State standing out | Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Back-to-School Risk Index | South Dakota | 85.29 risk score |
| Commute-window fatality rate | Mississippi | 2.75 per 100,000 students |
| Serious school-offense rate | Louisiana | 70.4 per 1,000 students |
| Kindergarten MMR vaccination gap | Idaho | 21.5% |
| Lowest sports-safety policy coverage | Maine | 30% of framework met |
| Strongest sports-safety policy coverage | Georgia | 93.67% of framework met |
These differences are important because a state may perform relatively well in one area while showing substantially greater risk in another. The overall index was designed to capture that broader combination rather than relying on a single measure.
Mississippi Has the Highest Rate of Child Deaths During School Commute Hours
Road safety was one of the largest components of the index, accounting for 40% of the final score.
H&P Law analyzed 2024 fatal-crash data for children ages 5 through 17 during weekday periods that generally overlap with school travel: 6 a.m. to 8:59 a.m. and 2 p.m. to 5:59 p.m., excluding the summer months.
Nationally, 323 children ages 5 through 17 died in traffic crashes during those periods, resulting in a rate of 0.65 deaths per 100,000 public-school students. Because the analysis identifies crashes based on time and day, it cannot determine that every child was actually traveling to or from school.
The highest rates were concentrated in several less-populous states:
| State | Commute-window deaths per 100,000 public-school students |
|---|---|
| Mississippi | 2.75 |
| Wyoming | 2.20 |
| South Dakota | 2.12 |
| Montana | 2.01 |
| U.S. overall | 0.65 |
Mississippi’s rate was more than four times the national figure. Wyoming, South Dakota and Montana each recorded rates more than three times the U.S. benchmark.
Raw totals painted a different picture. Texas recorded 38 deaths during the defined periods, followed by California with 29 and Florida with 24. Mississippi recorded 12.
That contrast illustrates why population-adjusted rates can reveal patterns that raw totals alone may obscure. States with millions of students may accumulate more deaths while still recording a lower rate relative to their school-age population.
School-bus safety data also show that the danger is not limited to children sitting inside buses. NHTSA describes the school bus as one of the safest forms of transportation for K-12 students, while noting that children can be particularly vulnerable when approaching or leaving buses. Less than 1% of traffic fatalities involving children in school transportation crashes involve children riding in school transportation vehicles.
School Safety Data Shows Wide Differences Between States
The H&P Law analysis also incorporated seven categories of serious offenses reported through the federal Civil Rights Data Collection.
Across approximately 48.2 million public-school students, the study identified more than 1.2 million documented offenses, equivalent to 25.1 offenses per 1,000 students. Louisiana recorded the highest state rate at 70.4 per 1,000, followed by Kentucky at 61.1.
| State | Serious school offenses per 1,000 students |
|---|---|
| Louisiana | 70.4 |
| Kentucky | 61.1 |
| Nebraska | 53.2 |
| Missouri | 46.0 |
| South Dakota | 41.8 |
| U.S. rate used in study | 25.1 |
California recorded the largest raw number of offenses included in the analysis, at 170,661, but its much larger student population resulted in a rate of 29.2 per 1,000 students.
Separate federal data underline the scale of the broader school-safety issue. During the 2021-22 school year, U.S. public schools recorded an estimated 857,500 violent incidents, and 67.3% of schools reported at least one such incident. The national rate was about 18 violent incidents per 1,000 students. Sixty-one percent of schools reported at least one physical attack or fight without a weapon, while approximately 3,000 schools reported at least one hate crime.
Recent student surveys also show worsening perceptions of safety in some areas. CDC data show that between 2021 and 2023, the share of high school students who said they were threatened or injured with a weapon at school rose from 7% to 9%. The percentage reporting bullying at school increased from 15% to 19%, while the share missing school because of safety concerns at school or while traveling there climbed from 9% to 13%.
Vaccination Gaps Add Another Layer to School Readiness
Health preparedness accounted for another part of H&P Law’s index, with the study measuring the percentage of kindergartners who were not up to date on the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine.
National MMR coverage among kindergartners has declined from 95.2% in the 2019-20 school year to 92.5% in 2024-25, according to CDC data. The agency estimated that approximately 285,755 kindergartners did not have the full recommended MMR coverage during the latest school year measured.
H&P Law found the largest state gaps in:
- Idaho: 21.5% of kindergartners not up to date
- Alaska: 18.8%
- Minnesota: 13.5%
- Colorado: 12.0%
- Oklahoma: 11.3%
The decline matters because measles prevention generally depends on very high vaccination coverage. CDC guidance has identified coverage above 95% as important for preventing sustained transmission, while recent outbreaks have illustrated how pockets of lower vaccination coverage can leave schools and communities vulnerable.
Sports-Safety Policies Vary Sharply From State to State
Back-to-school season also marks the return of high school athletics, bringing another set of safety concerns into the picture.
Participation reached an all-time record of 8,266,244 high school athletes during the 2024-25 school year, an increase of 203,942 from the previous year, according to the National Federation of State High School Associations.
H&P Law incorporated state high school sports-safety policies into its index, using an evidence-based framework that considers protections such as heat acclimatization, practice restrictions based on weather conditions, access to cold-water immersion and protocols calling for rapid cooling in heat emergencies.
The differences between states were substantial.
| State | Sports-safety framework met |
|---|---|
| Georgia | 93.67% |
| Florida | 93.0% |
| New Jersey | 85.0% |
| Montana | 37.8% |
| Nebraska | 36.0% |
| Minnesota | 33.75% |
| Mississippi | 32.38% |
| Maine | 30.0% |
These percentages measure the policies states have adopted. They do not establish how consistently individual schools implement those policies or how frequently injuries occur.
Minnesota ultimately received the highest health-and-readiness risk component in the H&P Law study because its relatively large MMR vaccination gap coincided with comparatively limited sports-safety policy coverage.
School Infrastructure Remains Uneven Across the Country
National data suggest that the physical environment around schools may be another important part of the safety equation.
A National Center for Education Statistics survey found that 39% of public-school leaders said traffic patterns around their schools pose a threat to students’ physical safety while commuting. School buses were available at 87% of schools, but students also arrived by car, on foot, on bicycles and through other forms of transportation.
Infrastructure designed to separate children from traffic is not universal. Federal school survey data have found that 79% of public schools reported sidewalks on at least some surrounding streets, while just 35% reported traffic-calming measures such as speed bumps and 19% reported nearby bicycle lanes. Traffic conditions were cited as a barrier to walking or cycling at 39% of schools.
Those findings suggest that back-to-school road safety cannot be reduced to school buses alone. Children may encounter risk while crossing streets, walking from bus stops, riding bicycles, entering parent pickup areas or driving themselves to high school.
How H&P Law Built the Back-to-School Risk Index
H&P Law standardized each state’s results into comparative risk scores from 0 to 100 and then weighted five indicators. A higher score represents greater risk relative to other states in the dataset rather than an estimated probability that an individual student will be harmed.
| Indicator | Weight | Data used |
|---|---|---|
| Commute-window fatality rate | 25% | 2024 FARS fatalities per 100,000 public-school students |
| Pedestrian and cyclist fatality rate | 15% | 2024 fatalities among ages 5-17 per 100,000 students |
| Serious school-offense rate | 25% | 2021-22 CRDC offenses per 1,000 public-school students |
| Kindergarten MMR vaccination gap | 15% | 2024-25 CDC vaccination coverage |
| High school sports-safety policy gap | 20% | State policy coverage measured against the sports-safety framework |
Together, transportation accounted for 40% of the index, serious school incidents for 25%, and health and sports readiness for 35%.
The methodology also highlights an important limitation when comparing smaller and larger states. A small number of traffic deaths can produce a relatively high per-capita rate in a state with fewer students. Conversely, a populous state may have more deaths in raw terms while producing a lower rate.
For that reason, the ranking is best understood as a comparison of several measurable aspects of the school-safety environment rather than a prediction of what an individual child will experience.
Still, the data show that back-to-school safety looks very different across the country. South Dakota’s overall position reflects risks spread across transportation, school incidents and policy measures, while the individual categories identify different pressure points elsewhere. Mississippi stands out for child traffic fatalities during school-associated travel hours, Louisiana for serious school offenses, Idaho for vaccination coverage and Maine for gaps in statewide sports-safety policies.
Taken together, H&P Law’s findings show that the risks surrounding the start of the school year begin before students reach the classroom and continue through the school day, the trip home and after-school athletics.
